Emanuela B.In Campania, people are raising their glasses, but let’s be honest—not everyone really has a reason to celebrate. According to the Opinio-Rai exit polls, Roberto Fico is taking home somewhere between 56.5% and 60.5% of the votes. That’s a big gap, and it spells out a clear win over the center-right’s Edmondo Cirielli, who’s stuck between 35% and 39%. It’s a landslide, no surprises there. With numbers like these, you’d expect a leader to stand tall and step into a brand-new era of politics—a solid, steady phase, with no surprises lurking around the corner. At least, that’s the theory.
But politics doesn’t work like math. Big wins at the ballot box don’t always mean you get to call the shots. It’s an old story, especially in Italian politics. And Campania? It’s the textbook example. Fico didn’t just win—he crushed it. No debate there. The real question is: will he actually govern? And if he does, how’s he going to pull it off? The coalition backing him is huge, all over the map, and balanced on a knife’s edge. It’s the classic “broad front” against Meloni—same old story. But really, everything revolves around two names that matter more than any poll: Vincenzo De Luca and Clemente Mastella.
De Luca comes first. He’s the mastermind behind the whole center-left machine in the region. That’s not a small detail. His network, his brand of power—it’s all still standing, untouched, even now that someone new is officially at the top. Just look at the deals with Elly Schlein that landed his son Piero a cushy spot in the Democratic galaxy. Fico, who made his name on the “clean break” politics of the old Five Star Movement, now finds himself relying on the very man he was supposed to be fighting. That’s real political dependence, whether he likes it or not.
And then there’s Mastella. The survivor. The guy who’s made a career out of sticking around no matter what. The same guy the Five Star Movement used to call the poster child for everything wrong with Italian politics. Well, now, in one of those Italian plot twists, M5s needs him to keep things steady. He’s not a natural ally, but at this point, you can’t avoid him.
So, while the exit polls look shiny and clean, the reality of power is something else. Fico starts his term with more strings attached than freedom to move. He can’t really claim victory—not yet—because his leadership, at least for now, is all on paper. The center-left can pop the champagne, the Movement can brag about the numbers, but the real game starts tomorrow.
And tomorrow, the headaches begin. Because in Campania—like anywhere run by these patched-together coalitions—the winner doesn’t always get to rule. And the real power? Most of the time, you won’t find those names on the ballot. Fico won the votes. Now he has to find out if he’s got the power to match. That’s the real challenge, way beyond any percentage.
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